A referendum (also known as a plebiscite) is a direct vote by the electorate on a particular proposal, law or political issue. It can be binding and result in a new policy, or it may simply be advisory.
Referenda are popular forms of direct democracy. They are often initiated by a government to address political problems. They can help resolve a political stalemate, as they are less likely to split a party as an election would be. They also offer the opportunity to address controversial issues that may be politically sensitive. However, the effectiveness of a referendum depends on the context in which it is held and how citizens respond to its outcome.
Whether the referendum will generate a floor or ceiling effect will depend on how much it shifts away from the status quo (or maintains it) and on what is known about citizens’ preferences for direct democracy. It will also depend on how governments deal with negative referendum outcomes, as this can change the effect that winning or losing a referendum has on citizens’ preferences for this form of decision-making.
Previous research has shown that referendum support is not as stable as previously thought. Werner (2019) finds that citizens’ preferences for this form of decision-making are more fluid and context dependent than generally assumed and influenced by instrumental considerations.