More than four years ago, the SARS-CoV-2 virus blazed a trail of death and destruction that shocked an unprepared world. While it wasn’t the worst pandemic in history, it highlighted vast health inequalities, caused severe economic disruption, and spawned vitriolic politics over everything from masks to vaccines. But there’s reason for hope: based on historical observations and computable general equilibrium simulations, we know how to recognize and respond to a major pandemic.
A new beta-coronavirus emerged in 2012, and it quickly triggered a global pandemic. Like its predecessor, SARS-CoV, it affected people of all ages, sexes, and social classes without discrimination. And, in almost every country, the same pattern of the epidemic curve emerged: a rapid rise in incidence that reached a peak within 15 days and lasted up to three weeks, followed by a sharp decline due to lack of susceptible individuals.
A global network of researchers has been established to develop a vaccine for this new virus, and there is much more to be done in developing and disseminating critical information, such as risk assessments, clinical evidence, risk communication strategies, and the use of PPE (personal protective equipment). Commonwealth biosecurity laws and state and territory public health and emergency response laws can enforce certain measures, such as requiring people to stay at home during a pandemic, or using a face mask when entering some areas — but a large portion of these measures are being undertaken voluntarily.